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PREDICTION RESOLVED

Almarai sales grew faster than earnings as costs rose

By OnTheRice · Sources and limitations · Report a correction

BEARISHHorizon24H
Probability Not recorded

Almarai reported Q3 sales of SAR6.19 billion, up 11%, but net profit rose only 1% to SAR617.8 million as feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs increased. Nine-month sales rose 10% while profit stayed near SAR1.99 billion. Its October 4 close of SAR43.60, up 3.81%, predates the displayed results-release time, so it cannot show the response. The bearish call remains conditional on costs continuing to reduce profit from sales.

Current priceNot available
24-hour changeNot available

Source confidenceNot assessed

Published
Check time

What’s changing?

Higher shipping, distribution and energy costs can absorb sales growth. Later results must show whether that continues.

Key points

  • The Almarai-published Q3 release carried by MarketScreener/Publicnow reports 4 Oct Q3 revenue SAR6.19bn (+11% YoY), net profit SAR617.8m (+1% YoY), nine-month revenue SAR18.22bn (+10%) and nine-month net profit SAR1.99bn broadly stable. It attributes the profit conversion gap to feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs. Its page displays 09:13 a.m. EDT (13:13Z), while its footer says distribution at 13:12 UTC; preserve this one-minute clock discrepancy. Argaam reports the 4 Oct Almarai close at SAR43.60, +3.81%. Saudi Exchange's official schedule sets continuous trading at 10:00–15:00 KSA, then closing auction/trade-at-last sessions through 15:20. Thus the market close predates the displayed issuer-release distribution time; the session gain cannot be treated as a measured post-release response. A primary Q3 filing URL was not separately located in the official issuer/exchange search; the public release identifies Almarai as publisher and links its IR archive.

What could change this view?

  • Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Bottom line

More likely direction: BEARISH over the next 24 hours.

This is based on the information recorded with this signal.

Terms in simple English

These explanations help you read this signal. The saved forecast, prices, deadline and outcome rules stay the same.

Bearish
OTR expects the price to fall during the stated time window. This is a forecast, not a promise.
Watch or on confirmation
The signal asks readers to watch for a stated condition. If it also says bullish or bearish, that direction still counts in the recorded outcome check.
Share or equity
A share is a small ownership stake in a company. Its price can rise or fall.
HIT and MISS
HIT means the price moved in the recorded direction under that call’s saved rules. MISS means it did not meet those rules. These labels do not measure profit after trading costs.
Revenue
Money earned from sales before subtracting costs.
Earnings or net income
A company’s profit after its costs. Earnings reports show how much it made or lost.
Margin in context
A business margin compares revenue with stated costs; it may be a percentage or profit per unit, such as dollars per barrel. For a leveraged trade, margin means money required to support the position. Check the stated measure.
Issuer
The company, government or organisation issuing a security. Evidence about one issuer may not apply to others in its sector.
Quarter (Q1 to Q4)
A three-month reporting period. Company financial years can start in different months.
UTC and SGT
UTC is a world time standard. SGT is Singapore time, eight hours ahead of UTC.
Capacity
What a factory, network or system can produce or handle. Capacity differs from actual output and demand.
How likely is this call? · Three frameworks

Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR) · BEARISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Read the shared method · Read the public probability method

Evidence behind this view

Checks whether separate pieces of evidence support the same view.

Recorded connection

Revenue grew much faster than net profit as feed shipping, distribution and energy expenses absorbed revenue growth; if that cost conversion persists, earnings momentum lags sales.

We have not established a separate count of independent evidence clusters for this card. Several reports may rely on the same event or data provider.

What past price moves show

Compares today’s price moves with recorded past patterns.

No asset-specific historical pattern test is recorded separately for this card.

Evidence against this view

Shows evidence and risks that could challenge this view.

Recorded opposing evidence and risks

Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Why the direction changed

Explains recorded changes from expecting a rise to expecting a fall, or the reverse.

No documented bullish-to-bearish or bearish-to-bullish change is available for this card. We keep the original call and its time unchanged.

What people say vs the facts

Compares recorded public discussion with checked market facts.

No separate Reddit or public-discussion comparison with verified market data is recorded for this card. We cannot treat social attention as proof of a market move.

How past forecasts performed

Shows recorded forecast results and what they can teach us.

Recorded outcomes for this signal: 0 HIT, 1 MISS, 0 other or pending. These counts are not a forecast probability.

No tested mapping from evidence combinations to future success is recorded for this card. Confidence in sources and past outcomes do not establish a calibrated probability.

MISSHistorical record
Sources, original wording and price checks

Published

First published through Sites 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

24-hour check

  • Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR)BEARISH ✕ MISS
    Price 1: 43.38000107 SAR
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 43.58000183 SAR
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Change: +0.461%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 15:01:00 SGT (offset 30409.177 s)
    Price 2 source: 05 Oct 2026, 19:59:00 SGT (offset -38110.823 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BEARISH only if later results show input costs continue to prevent profit growth from catching up with sales; current Q3 data and positive 3.81% close do not support an unconditional short.

    The price rose between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was incorrect.

    Price series: 2280.SR · Saudi Exchange. Nearest available one-minute candle opening price to each fixed endpoint. Offsets are disclosed; original call and deadline are unchanged.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

    43.38000107 SAR · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 43.38000107 SAR · 05 Oct 2026, 15:01:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: 30409.177 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle start; candle opening price. This is an approximation to the requested instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

    43.58000183 SAR · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 43.58000183 SAR · 05 Oct 2026, 19:59:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -38110.823 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle start; candle opening price. This is an approximation to the requested instant.

    Change: +0.20000076 SAR (+0.461%). The price rose between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was incorrect.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

Price-check terms in simple English

A reference is the saved starting quote. An endpoint is the comparison quote used for the result. A venue is the market or platform supplying that quote. A snapshot is a saved copy of the evidence at a stated time.

A one-minute price bar groups prices recorded within one minute; its close is the last price in that group. It does not prove a trade happened at the exact forecast time. A vendor is the data provider, and an execution price is the price of an actual trade.

Sign-only scoring checks whether the price rose or fell. A custom rule uses the separate saved conditions shown with that call. Supplied or owner-recorded evidence retains its stated limits; it is not automatically an independent check.

What changed

Recorded public history

Almarai's 4 October Q3 release showed SAR6.19bn revenue (+11% year on year) but net profit only +1% to SAR617.8m; higher feed-shipping,…

This is the first recorded public view. Further public updates will appear here.

  1. Almarai sales grew faster than earnings as costs rose

    Almarai's 4 October Q3 release showed SAR6.19bn revenue (+11% year on year) but net profit only +1% to SAR617.8m; higher feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs offset the sales growth. Nine-month revenue rose 10% while profit stayed near SAR1.99bn. Argaam puts the 4 October close at SAR43.60 (+3.81%). Saudi Exchange’s trading schedule ends by 15:20 KSA (12:20Z); the issuer release page states it was distributed at 13:12Z. The close predates the displayed release timestamps, so these sources establish no post-release share response. BEARISH only if later margins confirm costs persist.

    First published by OTR: 5 Oct, 06:34 SGTPublished by OTR: 5 Oct 2026, 06:34 SGT
    Almarai delivers broad-based revenue growth in Q3 2026 ↗TASI rises 1.1% to 10,506 points, turnover at SAR 2.3B ↗Almarai Investor Relations (Q3 release says full results are available here) ↗Saudi Exchange Trading Cycle and Times ↗Saudi Exchange Amended Trading and Membership Procedures (official PDF) ↗

Why the view changed

This is the first recorded view. Future source-backed updates will appear here.

Evidence, memory & review 5 linked sources

Named assets or actors: Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR)

Directional takeaway: BEARISH only if later results show input costs continue to prevent profit growth from catching up with sales; current Q3 data and positive 3.81% close do not support an unconditional short.

OTR reasoning: Revenue grew much faster than net profit as feed shipping, distribution and energy expenses absorbed revenue growth; if that cost conversion persists, earnings momentum lags sales.

Counterpoint: Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Source-grounded facts (paraphrased)

  • Time not supplied: The Almarai-published Q3 release carried by MarketScreener/Publicnow reports 4 Oct Q3 revenue SAR6.19bn (+11% YoY), net profit SAR617.8m (+1% YoY), nine-month revenue SAR18.22bn (+10%) and nine-month net profit SAR1.99bn broadly stable. It attributes the profit conversion gap to feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs. Its page displays 09:13 a.m. EDT (13:13Z), while its footer says distribution at 13:12 UTC; preserve this one-minute clock discrepancy. Argaam reports the 4 Oct Almarai close at SAR43.60, +3.81%. Saudi Exchange's official schedule sets continuous trading at 10:00–15:00 KSA, then closing auction/trade-at-last sessions through 15:20. Thus the market close predates the displayed issuer-release distribution time; the session gain cannot be treated as a measured post-release response. A primary Q3 filing URL was not separately located in the official issuer/exchange search; the public release identifies Almarai as publisher and links its IR archive. Source records: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/almarai-delivers-broad-based-revenue-growth-in-q3-2026-ce785ddbdc8ff126, https://www.argaam.com/en/market-daily-report/3/62222?preview=true, https://www.almarai.com/en/corporate/investor-relations, https://www.saudiexchange.sa/wps/portal/saudiexchange/rules-guidance/capital-market-overview/trading-cycle-and-times, https://www.saudiexchange.sa/wps/wcm/connect/39037207-733d-4346-9007-762e0780a05e/Amended%2BTrading%2Band%2BMembership%2BProcedures%2B-%2B.pdf?CVID=&MOD=AJPERES

Source trail

Review status: SUPPORTED WITH CLOCK CAVEAT

This evidence panel does not assign a score or probability. Any forecast estimate is shown separately with its own source and limitations.

These records are in the same category and cite at least one of the same source documents. Shared evidence is not independent confirmation; each record keeps its own date and conclusion.