{"schema":"OTR-CURRENT-SIGNAL-READER-1","presentationSchema":"OTR-SIGNAL-SLIDES-1","signalId":"SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03","canonicalUrl":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/","title":"CME GROUP (NASDAQ: CME)","category":"Investment","representation":"current-guided-reader","originalResearch":"preserved-separately","sources":[{"title":"Reference source","url":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cme/","contexts":["Original research record","Call and evidence","What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"investor.cmegroup.com ↗","url":"https://investor.cmegroup.com/static-files/49c4ff81-cb24-4efc-842b-e32cfa8b1888","contexts":["Original research record","What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"investor.cmegroup.com ↗","url":"https://investor.cmegroup.com/static-files/24c9441a-4542-4f83-803a-46fa149de4fb","contexts":["Original research record","What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"www.benzinga.com ↗","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62496154/cme-group-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript","contexts":["Original research record","What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]}],"chapters":[{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-1","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-1","title":"OTR EMERGING DATA","topic":"emerging","kind":"cover","text":"Start with the main idea: what may be changing, how the clues connect, and what remains uncertain. The potential opportunity is durable Q4 earnings, not merely the already-known Q3 trading boom. Current contract activity, fee sensitivity and recurring market-data income could support earnings even without another surge in volatility. The stock’s muted response leaves room for that interpretation, but does not prove the shares are mispriced.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-3","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-3","title":"The idea, step by step","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"Start with the main idea: what may be changing, how the clues connect, and what remains uncertain. Read the matching explanation in OTR EMERGING DATA .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-1"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-4","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-4","title":"The key clues","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"See the main observations behind the idea, with their important qualifications. The company commentary reports October average number of contracts traded each day of 29.671 million contracts, up 17%, through 20 October. The 0.5%–1% fee sensitivity applies to annualized clearing and transaction fees at comparable activity, not total revenue. Using the disclosed figures, ex-catch-up market-data growth is about 19.9%, adjusted operating-income growth about 14.7% and revenue growth about 13%.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-5","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-5","title":"What could change this view?","topic":"changes","kind":"research","text":"See what could change this interpretation and what still needs to be checked. October-to-date metals volume fell 55%; the sale-funded repurchase is completed, not a new ongoing catalyst. There are four unique links; six evidence items ultimately rely on CME. The fee change occurred earlier; this is the fresh commentary’s sensitivity estimate, not a newly announced fee change.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-6","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-6","title":"What this means","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"Read the takeaway and the limits that matter before drawing a conclusion. Its source facts and prices still need independent checks.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-7","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-7","title":"Evidence behind this view","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Review the information supporting this view and the limits on what it can show. Checks whether separate pieces of evidence support the same view. Evidence 1 — October-to-date average daily volume was 29.671 million contracts, up 17%, through 20 October. Evidence 2 — The fresh commentary estimates October fee changes add 0.5–1% to annualized clearing and transaction fees at comparable activity, not total revenue. Evidence 3 — Market-data revenue reached $243.1m. Removing disclosed catch-up payments gives approximately 19.9% growth, calculated from company figures. Evidence 4 — Adjusted operating income rose approximately 14.7%, faster than revenue’s approximately 13% growth; share of revenue left as profit from running the business before interest and tax, after the company’s adjustments reached 69.4%. Evidence 5 — E-nano futures daily volume increased from 37,000 in September to 66,000 through mid-October. Evidence 6 — Management reported the number of trading contracts still open above 133 million contracts on 21 October, against approximately 128 million at quarter-end. Source clocks Evidence 1–5 comes from 21 October results materials. The release was published at 19:00 SGT; the accompanying commentary’s exact upload time is unavailable. Evidence 6 is from the call beginning 20:30 SGT. Evidence 7 was observed at 22 October, 04:00 and 07:30 SGT. Historical measurement periods are not being presented as new same-day measurements.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-9","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-9","title":"Evidence against this view","topic":"changes","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. Shows evidence and risks that could challenge this view. October metals volume fell 55%. Return of the OSTTRA proceeds was already completed, so it is not a new ongoing repurchase catalyst.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-11","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-11","title":"What people say vs the facts","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Compare what people say with the observations, without treating attention as proof. Compares recorded public discussion with checked market facts. Research gap: No independent, source-matched sentiment or positioning series was established for this original issue window. Corporate disclosures and a price observation are not a measured crowd-positioning signal.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-13","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-13","title":"Signal category","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Read the details behind this part of the research and how they connect to the main idea. Investments","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-14","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-14","title":"Company or instrument","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Read the details behind this part of the research and how they connect to the main idea. {\"currency\":\"USD\",\"name\":\"CME Group\",\"symbol\":\"CME\",\"venue\":\"NASDAQ\"}","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-15","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-15","title":"Summary","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Read the details behind this part of the research and how they connect to the main idea. Read the matching explanation in OTR EMERGING DATA .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-1"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-16","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-16","title":"opposing explanations","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. Read the matching explanation in Chapter 5 .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-5"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-17","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-17","title":"What changed","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"See what changed in the research and why, while keeping earlier recorded views separate. Recorded public history Current contract activity, fee sensitivity… This is the first recorded public view. Further public updates will appear here. The potential opportunity is durable Q4 earnings, not merely the already-known Q3 trading boom. Current contract activity, fee sensitivity and recurring market-data income could support earnings even without another surge in volatility. Forecast prepared: 22 Oct, 10:02 SGT Published by OTR: 22 Oct 2026, 11:16 SGT","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-18","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-18","title":"Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources","topic":"sources","kind":"research","text":"Check where the information came from, when it was observed and what was verified. Named assets or actors: CME Group (CME) Source trail Any forecast estimate is shown separately with its own source and limitations.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-20","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-20","title":"OTR reasoning · Why we see this connection","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Follow the reasoning from the observations to the proposed result. A possible link is not proof. OTR’s interpretation: First, October activity provides information beyond the completed third quarter. Second, fee sensitivity and recurring market-data income may support revenue even if volatility stops accelerating.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-21","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-21","title":"Counterpoint · Another possible explanation","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. Read the matching explanation in Chapter 5 .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-5"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-22","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-22","title":"Review status","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check what was reviewed, what remains uncertain and how much the sources can support. LEARNING REVIEWED WITH DISCLOSED LIMITS","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-23","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-23","title":"Keep exploring","topic":"connections","kind":"finish","text":"Choose how to follow this Signal or compare it with other research. Track this Signal to find it again, compare the evidence, and revisit its recorded outcome. Explore more Signals →","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-24","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03/#otr-slide-SIG-8994ac8313bfd01597197a85-03-detail-24","title":"Terms in simple English","topic":"glossary","kind":"glossary","text":"Find plain meanings for the specialist terms used in this research. Asset or investible Something that can be bought or sold, such as a share, bond, fund, currency or cryptocurrency. Share or equity A share is a small ownership stake in a company. Its price can rise or fall. Entry or reference price A reference quote is not proof that a trade could be made at that price. Horizon or deadline The forecast time window. A saved deadline states when the outcome should be checked. HIT and MISS MISS means it did not meet those rules. These labels do not measure profit after trading costs. Estimates whose accuracy has not been established by testing A judgement that has not been shown to match real outcomes reliably. It is not a proven success rate. Calibration Checking whether stated chances match real results across many forecasts. An estimate can still be untested. Revenue Money earned from sales before subtracting costs. Earnings or net income A company’s profit after its costs. Earnings reports show how much it made or lost. Margin Profit compared with sales after the stated costs. A lower share of sales kept as profit means less profit from each dollar of sales. Margin in context A business margin compares revenue with stated costs; it may be a percentage or profit per unit, such as dollars per barrel. For a leveraged trade, margin means money required to support the position. Check the stated measure. Share of revenue left as profit from running the business before interest and tax The share of sales left after normal running costs, before interest and tax. Leverage Using borrowed money or financial contracts to increase exposure. This can increase gains and losses. How fixed costs amplify changes in operating profit When many costs stay fixed, a change in sales can cause a larger change in profit. Futures Contracts linked to buying or selling an asset at a set price for a future date. Their exposure can create large losses. Ticker The short code identifying an asset on a venue. Venue, currency and exact instrument still matter. Exchange or venue The market or trading platform supplying a quote. NASDAQ and NYSE are US exchanges; SGX is Singapore Exchange. Prices can differ by venue. Volatility How widely and quickly prices move. Quarter (Q1 to Q4) A three-month reporting period. Company financial years can start in different months. Catalyst An event that could change investors’ views of price, such as earnings or a policy decision. UTC and SGT UTC is a world time standard. SGT is Singapore time, eight hours ahead of UTC.","links":[]}]}