{"schema":"OTR-CURRENT-SIGNAL-READER-1","presentationSchema":"OTR-SIGNAL-SLIDES-1","signalId":"SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11","canonicalUrl":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/","title":"The feed is splitting in two","category":"Social Media","representation":"current-guided-reader","originalResearch":"preserved-separately","sources":[{"title":"s21.q4cdn.com ↗","url":"https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/content_files/META-Q3-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf","contexts":["What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"news.linkedin.com ↗","url":"https://news.linkedin.com/2026/new-ways-to-build-meaningful-connections","contexts":["What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"about.fb.com ↗","url":"https://about.fb.com/news/2026/10/introducing-your-algorithm-facebook/","contexts":["What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]},{"title":"blog.youtube ↗","url":"https://blog.youtube/news-and-events/made-on-youtube-viewer-custom-feeds-shopping-tools/","contexts":["What changed","Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources"]}],"chapters":[{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-1","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-1","title":"OTR EMERGING DATA","topic":"emerging","kind":"cover","text":"Start with the main idea: what may be changing, how the clues connect, and what remains uncertain. We see two doors opening at once: faster discovery by machines, and a quieter route back to people we chose. Creators may need a discovery post and a reason to return, not one format for every feed. Meta Q3 2026 call, social recommendations section, page 6 · LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-2","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-2","title":"The idea, step by step","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"Start with the main idea: what may be changing, how the clues connect, and what remains uncertain. Read the matching explanation in OTR EMERGING DATA .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-1"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-3","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-3","title":"Research context","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"Understand the background and earlier comparisons, including the differences that matter. Publication and review times First published 22 Oct 2026, 16:41 SGT Research review No fixed date Review status LEARNING REVIEWED WITH DISCLOSED LIMITS","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-4","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-4","title":"The key clues","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"See the main observations behind the idea, with their important qualifications. Meta says its new retrieval supplies roughly a quarter of unconnected Facebook Feed views and half of Reels views. Meta Q3 2026 call, social recommendations section, page 6 Published: 21 October 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Q3 2026 platform results; precise rollout completion date unstated | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:04 SGT LinkedIn is testing a feed of connections and followed people; YouTube has announced saved, interest-based Custom Feeds. LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections Published: 15 October 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Network feed test described on 15 October; no participant adoption data | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:05 SGT YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools Published: 23 September 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Older context: US Custom Feeds announced as coming soon | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:07 SGT","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-5","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-5","title":"What could change this view?","topic":"changes","kind":"research","text":"See what could change this interpretation and what still needs to be checked. We would weaken this view if the relationship-feed tests stall, or creators find no meaningful difference between new viewers and returning viewers. LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections · YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-6","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-6","title":"What this means","topic":"emerging","kind":"research","text":"Read the takeaway and the limits that matter before drawing a conclusion. For creators, community managers and viewers: make the topic obvious, then offer a repeatable reason to come back. Do not abandon existing followers because discovery expands. LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections · Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words · YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools This is research and interpretation, not an investment price forecast. Source verification limits are listed below.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-7","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-7","title":"Evidence behind this view","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Review the information supporting this view and the limits on what it can show. The sources describe different routes to attention. Facebook lets people state interests in words; LinkedIn puts known accounts together. Neither route requires us to call every new post viral. | Observed: Network feed test described on 15 October; no participant adoption data | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:05 SGT Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words Published: 13 October 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Rollout announcement; real-time response is a company claim | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:03 SGT","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-8","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-8","title":"Historical context · What past price moves show","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Understand the background and earlier comparisons, including the differences that matter. Current synthesis, not a claim that all features launched today. Horizon: 30 days, to 21 November. We put subjective, not shown by testing to give reliable probabilities confidence at 75% that creators will need to assess discovery and returning audiences separately. OTR Database Data’s 11 October card separated video discovery from trusted buying advice; the 14 October record added written interests. Our new comparison is narrower: discovery versus chosen-account feeds, using LinkedIn’s later test and Meta’s 21 October disclosure. | Observed: Q3 2026 platform results; precise rollout completion date unstated | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:04 SGT LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections Published: 15 October 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Rollout announcement; real-time response is a company claim | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:03 SGT OTR Database Data. Corpus snapshot: 22 October 2026, 15:20 SGT. Earlier source dates are stated above where recovered. This is not fresh independent confirmation.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-9","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-9","title":"Evidence against this view","topic":"changes","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. There is no comparable adoption study across these products. Meta reports platform totals, while LinkedIn describes a limited test and YouTube a planned rollout. Meta Q3 2026 call, social recommendations section, page 6 · LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections · YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-10","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-10","title":"How the research changed","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"See what changed in the research and why, while keeping earlier recorded views separate. Learning review before publication The supplied direction was retained: No investible directional call. The supplied synthesis was retained. Reason: Preserve the complete source research, dates, source-reported confidence and contextual horizons. Six actual collaborating Astra agents reviewed all20; primary-source access, historical-corpus and empirical-outcome limits are disclosed. The separate Social03 note clarifies two hypotheses without changing the source wording. No investment direction or forecast contract is issued. No individual outcome lesson was cited in this review. This review belongs to the new draft before publication. Earlier published calls and their original deadlines remain unchanged.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-11","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-11","title":"What people say vs the facts","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Compare what people say with the observations, without treating attention as proof. “The algorithm has changed” is too broad. The checked facts concern specific discovery systems and controls, not a universal rule for how often everyone should post. Meta Q3 2026 call, social recommendations section, page 6 · Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-12","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-12","title":"Earlier research and limits","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check what earlier forecast results are available and what they can tell us. Past results do not guarantee this outcome. No applied outcome lesson is claimed for this card.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-13","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-13","title":"The idea step by step","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Follow the reasoning from the observations to the proposed result. A possible link is not proof. First, a platform finds relevant posts beyond our follows. Then users can narrow their interests or choose familiar people. Our inference: winning a first view and keeping a relationship are becoming separate jobs. Meta Q3 2026 call, social recommendations section, page 6 · LinkedIn: New ways to build meaningful connections · Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-14","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-14","title":"Verification","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check what was reviewed, what remains uncertain and how much the sources can support. Sources and verification Four public primary sources are linked. Three companies provide separate product evidence, but none independently audits the others. Date-only announcements cannot supply exact publication hours. | Observed: Q3 2026 platform results; precise rollout completion date unstated | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:04 SGT | Verification: Primary page opened and text checked. This verifies what the source states, not independent measurement of platform outcomes. Company-reported aggregates, not creator-level reach data. | Observed: Network feed test described on 15 October; no participant adoption data | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:05 SGT | Verification: Primary page opened and text checked. Main text and FAQ differ on UK inclusion; test is not established as global or chronological. Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words Published: 13 October 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Rollout announcement; real-time response is a company claim | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:03 SGT | Verification: Primary page opened and text checked. YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools Published: 23 September 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable. | Observed: Older context: US Custom Feeds announced as coming soon | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:07 SGT | Verification: Primary page opened and text checked. No current account-level rollout test was performed.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-15","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-15","title":"What’s changing?","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Follow the reasoning from the observations to the proposed result. A possible link is not proof. The important change is not the end of following. We infer that explicit choice is being added alongside increasingly capable discovery, giving audiences more than one way to arrive.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-16","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-16","title":"Research update","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Read the details behind this part of the research and how they connect to the main idea. What to check For 30 days, compare new-viewer reach, returning viewers and meaningful replies for two repeatable formats on the same account. Keep topic and posting effort similar. Do not treat one winning post as proof. Keep exploring Ask which audience job each post serves: finding a new person, helping a familiar person, or inviting someone back. Check the answer against your own audience data.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-17","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-17","title":"Historical context","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Understand the background and earlier comparisons, including the differences that matter. Evidence, memory & review OTR Database Data’s 11 October card separated video discovery from trusted buying advice; the 14 October record added written interests.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-18","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-18","title":"People and organisations","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Identify the people, organisations or assets discussed and the part they play in the research. Meta and YouTube operate discovery products; LinkedIn is testing a relationship feed. Small creators and professional communities are the people whose audience routes could change. | Observed: Rollout announcement; real-time response is a company claim | Retrieved: 22 October 2026, 15:03 SGT YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools Published: 23 September 2026; Date only; exact SGT clock unavailable.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-19","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-19","title":"OTR reasoning · Why we see this connection","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Follow the reasoning from the observations to the proposed result. A possible link is not proof. We connect distribution with audience choice, rather than assuming an announced feature has already changed behaviour. The next useful evidence is repeat use, not another launch headline. Meta: Your Algorithm, Your Words · YouTube: Custom Feeds and viewer tools","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-20","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-20","title":"Opposing explanations","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. Counterpoint A separate feed can stay a niche feature. People may keep using the default home screen, leaving creator routines largely unchanged.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-21","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-21","title":"What changed","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"See what changed in the research and why, while keeping earlier recorded views separate. Since the earlier Facebook-control record, LinkedIn announced its Network feed test and Meta disclosed how widely its new discovery system is being used. Recorded public history We see two doors opening at once: faster discovery by machines, and a quieter route back to people we chose. Creators may need a discovery post and a reason to return, not one format for every feed. Forecast prepared: 22 Oct, 15:53 SGT Published by OTR: 22 Oct 2026, 16:41 SGT","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-22","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-22","title":"Why the view changed","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"See what changed in the research and why, while keeping earlier recorded views separate. We now frame this as two audience routes, not simply more control over one feed. That is a synthesis change, not a claim of measured migration.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-23","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-23","title":"Counterpoint · Another possible explanation","topic":"evidence","kind":"research","text":"Check the opposing evidence and other explanations that could weaken this view. Read the matching explanation in Chapter 5 .","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-5"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-24","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-24","title":"Evidence, memory & review 4 linked sources","topic":"sources","kind":"research","text":"Check where the information came from, when it was observed and what was verified. Source trail This evidence panel does not assign a score or probability. Any forecast estimate is shown separately with its own source and limitations.","links":[]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-25","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-25","title":"Keep exploring","topic":"connections","kind":"finish","text":"Choose how to follow this Signal or compare it with other research. Track this Signal to find it again, compare the evidence, and revisit its recorded outcome. Explore more Signals →","links":["https://ontherice.org/signals/"]},{"id":"otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-26","url":"https://ontherice.org/signals/SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11/#otr-slide-SIG-35b513e076b1c1fcce93aad2-11-detail-26","title":"Terms in simple English","topic":"glossary","kind":"glossary","text":"Find plain meanings for the specialist terms used in this research. Estimates whose accuracy has not been established by testing A judgement that has not been shown to match real outcomes reliably. It is not a proven success rate. Quarter (Q1 to Q4) A three-month reporting period. Company financial years can start in different months. UTC and SGT UTC is a world time standard. SGT is Singapore time, eight hours ahead of UTC. Discovery means being shown to someone who did not choose your account. A relationship feed groups accounts people already follow. A test is not a full rollout.","links":[]}]}